If you’re following the housing market, you may have heard the term “silver tsunami” lately. It’s the idea that millions of homes owned by older Americans could come onto the market as more homeowners reach retirement age and make their next move.
And when you hear a phrase like that, it’s easy to picture a flood of houses hitting the market all at once. But that picture doesn’t match the data.
This isn’t expected to happen overnight.
And if you’re planning to sell, it’s not a reason to put your plans on hold. Let’s look at what the research actually says.
The Silver Tsunami Will Be More of a Gradual Shift
According to Realtor.com, about 13.9 million homes owned by older Americans are expected to change hands by 2036. Sure, that’s a big number. But these homes aren’t all expected to come onto the market at once.
The projections show this happening gradually over the next decade, with roughly 1.3 to 1.5 million homes changing hands each year (see graph below):
Rather than a sudden wave of houses flooding the market, this is a gradual shift as longtime homeowners make decisions about where and how they want to live.
The term silver tsunami makes for a dramatic headline, but the actual data tells a much less dramatic story. And there’s another reason these homes won’t overwhelm the market.
The Market Has Room for More Homes
After the 2008 housing crash, builders significantly slowed construction. And for years afterward, they didn’t build enough homes to keep up with demand. That led to a housing shortage we’re still dealing with today.
And just how big a gap are we talking about? Estimates vary, but many experts say the U.S. is still millions of homes short. For example, a recent report from the White House Council of Economic Advisers explains:
“If homebuilding and the growth of the single-family housing stock had continued at their historical pace instead of falling dramatically after 2008, there would be 10 million or more additional single-family homes today.”
As more longtime homeowners sell, those homes will help a gap that’s already there. But they won’t push us over the edge. That’s because, at the same time, more households are expected to form in the decade ahead, and they’ll need homes, too.
So, more homes becoming available over time isn’t automatically a bad thing. It can give buyers more options and help create a more balanced housing market moving forward.
What Actually Matters When You Sell
Here’s the takeaway if you’re thinking about selling your house. The silver tsunami isn’t something you need to plan your move around. What’s happening in your local market is far more important than a national projection about the next decade.
That’s because real estate is local. Some markets have more homes for sale than others. Some are seeing houses sell relatively quickly, while others are taking longer.
And those are the conditions that matter when you’re deciding how to price, prepare, and market your house.
For example, an agent who knows your area can help you understand:
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How many homes are for sale nearby. This tells you how much choice buyers have and how your house will compare.
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What similar houses are actually selling for. That’s one of the most important factors in setting a competitive asking price.
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What buyers are looking for right now. Knowing which features and improvements matter most can help your house make a strong first impression.
And that’s something you can act on today, regardless of what happens with the silver tsunami over the next decade.
The right strategy starts with understanding your local market and making decisions based on what’s happening there, not what a dramatic national headline suggests might happen years from now.
Bottom Line
The silver tsunami may sound like a major wave of homes coming onto the market, but the research points to a gradual shift over the next decade, not a sudden flood of listings.
If you’re thinking about selling, don’t let that headline make you second-guess your plans. Talk to an agent about what’s happening in your local market.
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